Consumer loan vs investment loan

Global recession is an event where customer, unable to find or generate more money, demand are falling. therefore, government should find a way to increase customer money, such as easy loan, lower interest rate to encourage household to buy rather than to save. if they need money, then all the need to do is borrow the money. then gave it to central bank which will distribute it to private bank and later gave it to household in form of consumer loan. that's it. people need money to buy new TV so gave it to them. more transaction mean more tax. this increase in tax will gave boost to government revenue so they can used it to pay loan. or in this case, bought more  loan.

The rather disturbing narrative above is what most Keynesian subscribe today... they believe that a quickest way to increase economic activity or GDP is to increase liquidity and the quickest way to increase liquidity is to increase the availability of money and loan is the quickest way to increase money.. after printing the money, of course. 

Now don't get me wrong. i consider myself as Keynesian  i agree that liquidity is the most important factor in economy and money availability is the biggest factor that influence it. i also agree that debt, more specifically national debt,  is important in order to ensure the availability of money. however one thing that i disagree with many Keynesian researcher is their dependence on consumer loan to increase liquidity. that insane. 

Debt is the amount of money that you borrow from other because you are confident that in future, the economic growth from the usage of money will  gave you an increase in income, therefore you will able to pay the debt. it's like you borrow money to open new store. the new store will gave you increase in income so you will be richer than before and you able to pay the money you borrow with the new revenue.

However, consumer loan is a debt you take in order to consume something and it probably in form of new TV, car or house. that is a debt that you will paid using your future income which i highly doubt that will increase because your of new B.M.W. 

By now you should notice the difference between two loan. so let's discuss it even further. let see how they will affect the GDP.

GDP or gross domestic product is a measurement of one nation economic activity. for example, nation A had two people called joe and sara. joe purchase an apple from sara at cost of 5 dollar and sara purchase a banana from joe at cost of 5 dollar therefore GDP of nation A is 10 dollar. 

These two loan will contribute to GDP in it's each own way. the first loan, let's call it investment loan, will boost the economic growth by creating more jobs, more shop, in other word it will increase the GDP by boosting the supply side. the second loan or consumer loan will increase boost the GDP by increasing the sales of product or it will increase the GDP by boosting the demand side (people had more money to burn hence they will demand more goods). it fine since both of loan contribute to economic from two side of economic, the supply and demand sides.

Let's elaborate it a further more. every loan had a risk where the debtor will not able to pay their loan or solvency risk.  in investment loan, the solvency risk lies happen because the investment failed to increase income, perhaps because bad decision making or any other factor. in consumer loan, the risk of insolvency happen when the debtor is run out of mean to pay their loan, maybe because they got fired or laid off. in these sense, the risk of both loan lies in ability to predict future, be it from creditor side or the debtor side. 

The difference is, while investment loan is driven from desire to generate more income, thus if success will lead to increase in demand, the customer loan is driven from desire to acquire more luxury. while it will boost the demand or economic activity, the customer loan had no direct effect in affecting the supply. investment loan will, no doubt, boost increase in job opportunity and spread the wealth even further among the people via wages. consumer loan only affect the user. 

Now here come the problem with Keynesian  they consider an increasing in GDP is an increasing in economic activity. and if the government able to increase economic activity then the government is in the right track. let's forget that GDP consist of real GDP which represent the economic activity from real sector. as long as people keep buying then the economy will keep running, so let's decrease the interest cost and force the bank sales people to distribute more loan. don't worry they won't be so reckless in giving debt in order to meet quote.

yeah right, so U.S sub prime mortgage crisis is happen for entirely different reason than bank failure to choose the right debtor oh and  while we're at it. Greece and Cyprus crisis is happen because other reason as well. there is no way bank had anything to do with three greatest economic crisis in century. 

I've long had an opinion that true indicator of economic growth not lies in how much we buy but in how much we produce. some consider that i had an century long view of how economic should run. well yes, at least east India trading company is bankrupt due to bad decision making, not because their consumer  failed to pay their installment. i consider that increase in productivity worth more than increase in consumption, particularly if increase in consumption are driven from loan. 

consumer loan lead to consumerism, an act of living beyond one means. i believe that if one want something, he or she should work for it. not borrow money for it. people start to forget how it feel to save money. this is not an habit that we should encourage. 

if government truly care's about it's people. it will do whatever it takes to make sure that their people had a mean to put food on the table. the best way to do this is by providing jobs and perhaps, security. not by encourage people to borrow money to purchase new table. 

4 tahapan pencari kerja

4 TAHAPAN PENCARI KERJA

Waktu mau lulus dari ugm, ane memasuki jenjang yang sangat ditunggu-tunggu oleh mahasiswa yaitu jenjang mencari kerja. Kebetulan teman-teman ane ada yang sudah memasuki tahap ini lebih dulu... ada yang hanya menghabiskan 3 hari di fase ini dan lsg mendapatkan kerja.. ada pula yang sudah 4 bulan di fase ini tanpa kejelasan di masa depan...

Sekarang ane mau mencoba untuk menjabarkan klasifikasi para pencari kerja aKa jobseeker

JOBSEEKER RECRUIT

Karakteristik penghuni

Penghuni level ini umumnya terdiri dari wisudawan/ti yang baru saja diwisuda kemarin ato minggu lalu, mahasiswa/wi yang sudah selesai skripsi/thesis dan, yang paling jarang tapi mungkin ada, mahasiswa/wi yang belum selesai skripsi/thesis tapi sudah kehilangan harapan dalam menyelesaikan skripsi/thesisnya.

Ciri khas

Biasanya ketika agan melihat ada peserta tes yang agak gugup, mengecek kelengkapan alat tulis atau terlihat mengacak2 tas ketika penyerahan dokumen, maka agan dapat menebak kalau dia berada di level rekruit. Kegugupan dan ketidaksiapan mereka wajar karena mereka cenderung tidak punya pengalaman dalam mencari kerja. Bisa saja mereka kaget karena baru ditelepon untuk tes dan terlalu gembira sehingga lupa mengecek detail-detail kecil seperti tipe pensil apa yang harus dibawa.

Tingkat kepercayaan diri dan job expectancy

Layaknya prajurit yang baru masuk medan perang dan merasa bahwa kulitnya terbuat dari kevlar, mereka percaya bahwa tes mencari kerja ini sama seperti tes ketika kuliah, mereka belum “dibaptis” oleh kegagalan dan masih berada di awan-awan, cenderung takabur dan percaya kalau mereka akan menjadi CEO ketika masuk kerja nanti.

Pilihan kerja dan standar gaji yang diharapkan

masih berorientasi pada perusahaan-perusahaan besar atau paling tidak yang namanya sering terdengar di TV. Standar gaji pun berkutat di lapisan teratas gaji yang ditawarkan sehingga tak jarang mereka menolak untuk melamar di perusahaan yang gajinya mereka anggap tidak layak.

 

JOBSEEKER REGULAR

Karakteristik penghuni

Di tingkat ini menghuni para jobseeker yang sudah mengikuti tes sebanyak 5-6 kali dan mengalami kesulitan untuk melewati halangan pertama yaitu psikotes.

Ciri khas

agan pasti pernah melihat para peserta tes yang datang dengan membawa kotak plastik berisikan dokumen dan alat tulis, terlihat santai dan ramah. Biasanya datang bersama teman atau menyapa kenalannya dengan kalimat pembuka “hai, kamu melamar di sini juga ya?”

Tingkat kepercayaan diri dan job expectancy

Para jobseeker recruit sudah tahu kalau dunia nyata bukanlah padang bunga yang indah. Mereka telah menerima fakta bahwa mereka bukanlah pisau yang paling tajam dan masih ada yang lebih baik dari mereka. Mereka cenderung realistis tapi masih optimis bahwa kegagalan adalah sukses yang tertunda.

Pilhan kerja dan standar gaji yang diharapkan

Masih pula berorientasi pada perusahaan-perusahaan besar dan yang sering nongkrong di TV tapi sudah cukup sadar untuk melamar di perusahaan-perusahaan lain untuk “sekedar cari pengalaman interview”. Standar gaji pun sudah sesuai dengan informasi gaji dari perusahaan.

JOBSEEKER HARDENED

Karakteristik penghuni

Ini adalah tingkat yang sangat sakral, dimana hanya mereka yang sudah melewati 50 tes kerja yang bisa berada di level ini.

Ciri khas

Perbedaan yang paling mencolok adalah pakaiannya. Peserta yang memakai sendal dan kaos oblong ketika tes psikotes adalah para hardened jobseeker. Perbedaan lainnya adalah mereka biasanya datang sendiri dan jarang punya kenalan pencari kerja sehingga mereka cenderung duduk menyendiri sambil merokok ketika menunggu panggilan masuk ruangan. Perhatikan ekspresi muka mereka yang berubah ketika pelaksana tes mengatakan “anda akan dihubungi dua minggu lagi untuk....”

Tingkat kepercayaan diri dan job expectancy

Di mata hardened, dunia nyata itu seperti batu.. sangat keras. Pekerjaan hanya tersedia bagi mereka yang memiliki ipk tinggi, jabatan ketua atau wakil ketua di organisasi mahasiswa, prestasi di olimpiade, pengalaman kerja magang dan hal-hal lainnya yang tidak dicantumkan di cv mereka. Mereka adalah orang yang realistis dan percaya bahwa kegagalan adalah kegagalan... sukses hanya datang bagi mereka yang sukses di dunia kuliah.

Pilhan kerja dan standar gaji yang diharapkan

Praktisnya, semua perusahaan yang sesuai dengan kualifikasi mereka akan dilamar. Tidak ada lagi alasan-alasan tertentu seperti mencari pengalaman. Standar gaji pun sudah turun sampai setara UMR.

JOBSEEKER VETERAN 

Karakteristik penghuni

Ini adalah tempat dimana para hardened diantara hardened lainnya berada... mereka yang telah 3 kali melamar perusahaan yang sama... dan gagal menghuni level ini. 2 tahun pengalaman mencari kerja dan hafal beragam soal psikotes.

Ciri khas

Agan akan melihat seseorang yang berpakaian rapi, sopan tapi memiliki pandangan mata yang sayu akibat begadang semalam. Mereka biasanya terlihat akrab dengan para pelaksana tes yang sudah menjadi teman di facebook dan menjawab pertanyaan wawancara layaknya menjawab pertanyaan yang sudah diulang berkalikali “tidak pak, saya tidak memiliki pengalaman kerja”

Tingkat kepercayaan diri dan job expectancy

Berbeda dengan hardened, para veteran melihat dunia nyata itu penuh dengan kesempatan bagi mereka yang mau mengambilnya. Ada banyak lowongan pekerjaan selain bekerja di perusahaan seperti penjaga warnet dan konsultan skripsi/thesis part time. Mereka sering meluangkan waktu untuk mengikuti kursus-kursus tambahan seperti bahasa inggris dan seminar entreprenaurship.

Pilhan kerja dan standar gaji yang diharapkan

Semua yang mempunyai kalimat apply akan diklik oleh mereka. Semua alamat email yang meminta cv juga akan disambangi oleh mereka, tanpa peduli kualifikasi yang diminta perusahaan. Mereka bersikeras bahwa pengalaman kerja itu perlu dan gaji atau posisi merupakan urusan belakangan asalkan mereka diterima...

an opening

the reason why I'm blogging is because i had so many ideas that somehow just fade away into memory.  as a man who study accounting and football enthusiast , I'm accustomed to form opinion to whatever thing i heard or saw. be it Cyprus crisis or football match.

it will happen even you don't want it...

Crewe Alexandra no. 1 talent Max Clayton

when most of my friend are here in jogja, ruly, nurdin, fathir, ramon. we used to discuss anything about public sector accounting. now all of them are away so i have no one to discuss. mostly at times, i just sit in front of my computer, forming my opinion and when i satisfied with my explanation. i just let it go. what a shame! at least now i had a blog, i can write any opinion that i have about anything and whenever i'm bored or need inspiration, i can just look at it.

so here you go. expect anything goes. ranging from my thought of international economic crisis, football and pretty much anything that cross my mind.

oh and about the language, i enjoy writing in English so don't expect much bahasa Indonesia. you might even expect Spanish sometimes as i currently learning one.